Raleigh, N.C. – Republican candidate Dan Soucek now leads incumbent Democratic Senator Steve Goss in NC Senate District 45 according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, Soucek leads Goss by a 48%-41% margin.  Eleven percent of voters remain undecided in the race.  Of the voters who say they are most likely to vote in November, Soucek’s lead grows to 52%-41%.

In the previous Civitas/SurveyUSA poll taken in May, Goss led Soucek by two percentage points, 43%-41%.

“The political climate keeps getting worse for Steve Goss allowing Soucek to grab the lead,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.  “Voters are continuing to sour on Obama and national Democrats which is dragging down candidates like Goss across North Carolina.

Evidence of the worsening political climate for Democrats can be seen in the growing number of voters in SD 45 who think the state is headed in the wrong direction (64%, up from 59% in May) and the number of voters disapproving of the job Barack Obama is doing as President (65%, up from 59% in May).

Meanwhile, Goss’s net favorability rating has declined (from +23 to +11) while Soucek’s net favorability rating has increased (from +8 to +11).

“Soucek appears to have all the momentum in this race and the political winds are at his back.  SD 45 is a heavily Republican leaning district and appears to be returning to its usual dynamics,” added Hayes.

Senate District 45 is rated as an R+10 district on Civitas’ North Carolina Partisan Index – an index that rates the relative partisan voting habits of individual legislative districts.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken September 14-15 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of +/- 5%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.

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Katie Trout  |  May 18, 2010

Raleigh, N.C. – In the election for North Carolina’s 45th Senate District seat, Democratic incumbent Steve Goss and Republican challenger Dan Soucek are virtually tied according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters, 43 percent said that if the election for state senator were held today they would vote for Goss.  Forty-one percent said they would vote for Soucek, and 17 percent said they were undecided.

Sen. Goss is seen favorably by 34 percent of the district’s voters while only 11 percent have an unfavorable opinion.  By subtracting a candidate’s unfavorable rating from his favorable rating produces a net favorable number: Goss has a net favorability of +23.

Soucek has a net favorability +8 after been seen favorably by 18 percent of voters and unfavorably by 10 percent of voters.

“District 45 is a heavy Republican leaning district and given how close the polling here is today, will be a hard fought battle until November,” said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.  “The balance of power of the NC Senate in 2011 will be decided by who wins in District 45.”

Senate District 45 is rated as an R+10 district on Civitas’ NC Partisan Index.  For more on the NCPI, click here.

In a demonstration of the district’s Republican leanings, when asked generically who they favored for state Legislature, Republicans were favored over Democrats by a 48-36 percent margin.  Sixteen percent of voters said they were undecided.

For full results and crosstabs from the poll, click here.

The survey of 350 registered voters was taken May 8-10 by SurveyUSA on behalf of the Civitas Institute using the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) method.  It carries a margin of error of 4.9%.

This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S. Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.

State Senate (45th District)

Note: Democratic State Sen. Steve Goss has no primary opponent

Republican

Jeffrey Elmore 434

Dan Soucek  2,205

Dan Soucek believes our environmental and economic interests are not mutually exclusive.  History shows that poverty is a poor steward of the environment, so it is important that the North Carolina economy stays strong.  Good environmental public policy must harness market force and offer common sense solutions for protecting our natural resources that make NC one of the best states to call home. We also want to keep energy for homes, cars and business efficient and effective. 

Watauga and Ashe county residents are particularly interested in this issue as much of our economy is based on tourism.   Many of our states green collar leaders also call the high country home and with the presence of ASU within the 93^rd district, Dan has many reasons beyond his own personal interest in helping derive practical solutions to promote economic growth and environmental protection in the 93^rd district and throughout our state. 

Dan looks forward to providing this as a key part of his platform moving forward and asks for your vote!

Dan Soucek NC House LD 93 

http://www.goblueridge.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4770&Itemid=1

Dan Soucek

Candidate for North Carolina House of Representatives

District 93, Ashe and Watauga Counties

Phone Number:  (828) 773-6197               

E-mail address:  dan@fansofdan.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                   September 15, 2008

SOUCEK PARTICIPATES IN ASU’S SEPTEMBER 11TH MEMORIAL SERVICE 

On September 11th, Republican Candidate for NC House, 93rd District, Dan Soucek participated in a somber pre-dawn ceremony honoring the victims of the World Trade Center terrorist attack.  Students from ASU gathered to plant 2,974 American flags on campus as a memorial to those who lost their lives seven years ago. The College Republican student group led the time, and proper flag etiquette was ensured by members of the ROTC program.  

Soucek, a former Army Helicopter pilot, said he was honored to be part of the event and encourages students to take pride in their country and be involved in their community.  He shared his personal September 11th experiences with the students, having once worked only 8 blocks from the World Trade Center and how his family and friends were directly affected by this tragedy.  

“This was an incredibly respectful and meaningful way for students to remember and honor the true American heroes of Patriot’s Day,” Soucek said of the service.

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